The transition takes off in 2026

This is according to a new forecast from the Swedish Energy Agency. The forecast extends to 2028, and electricity production and use will increase in the coming years. But the increase will be at a lower rate than indicated in previous assessments.

Electricity consumption is now expected to increase by 15%, from just under 132 TWh in 2023 to 148 TWh in 2028. Much of the increase will take place in the last two years of the forecast period, i.e. 2026-2028.

The increase is seen above all in the industrial sector, where conversion projects are beginning to be realized, but also in the transport sector, where electrification is proceeding at a steady pace. Hydrogen production is also expected to be added on a larger scale from 2026 onwards.

"The transition in industry is a clear trend. At the same time, an uncertain operating environment and continued recession are leading to a deterioration in the investment climate, which means that development is not proceeding at the pace we have previously seen. However, a new focus on promoting competitiveness within the EU may improve the situation and increase the pace of the transition,” says Martin Johansson, Head of Forecasting and Scenarios at the Swedish Energy Agency.

Electricity generation will also increase by 15% during the forecast period, from 163 TWh to 187 TWh. This is mainly due to the continued expansion of onshore wind power, but also to more solar power and increased generation from existing nuclear power. Wind power production will increase by almost 40% and is expected to reach 47 TWh in 2028. The corresponding figure for solar electricity production is a tripling to 6 TWh.

Lennart Håkansson

editor@northswedenbusiness.com